In the world of fantasy baseball, stats are king. But when it comes to daily lineups, the stats we typically look at are often presented in a way that doesn't accurately reflect a player's true value, especially for hitters. This is particularly true for players like Michael Conforto, who demonstrates how starter/substitute splits can significantly impact a player's performance in points leagues versus roto leagues. Conforto's numbers look good on the surface, but when you consider his limited playing time and the impact of his PH appearances, the picture becomes much more nuanced.
Conforto's overall numbers, when prorated to a full season, look solid. However, his starter/substitute splits reveal a different story. As a starter, Conforto has a lower PA/G (3.66) compared to the average starter (4.08), largely due to his frequent removal for pinch hitters (PH). This results in fewer points per game (P/G) in Ottoneu points leagues, even though his points per PA (P/PA) are strong. In roto leagues, the impact is less clear, but the trend is still there.
The key takeaway is that when evaluating a player's season-long line, you need to consider how and when they are used. In weekly leagues, the season-long line is a useful reference, but you can't replace lost playing time. In daily leagues, you can replace those lost PA, but the season-long line is misleading and doesn't account for the nuances of a player's role. For instance, Conforto's overperformance off the bench makes him a unique case, and his overall numbers are skewed by his PH appearances.
To illustrate this point, let's look at Kerry Carpenter, another player who suffers from limited PA/G as a starter. Unlike Conforto, Carpenter's overall line is deflated by his struggles off the bench. While Carpenter's numbers as a starter are strong, his limited PA/G means that prorating him to 600 PA is not a straightforward process. The takeaway is that when evaluating a player's value, you need to consider their role and how they are used in your lineup, rather than relying solely on season-long lines.
